“For the first time since the recession began, the housing markets in Illinois and Chicagoland region almost presented positive indicators across the board.”  said Dr. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) of the University of Illinois.  (iar.org)

In the Chicagoland PMSA*, sales were up 36.7% over last year. Prices were down, but the decline was just 3% over 2009 (iar.org).

Overall, this spring felt more like a “normal” market. I didn’t feel the crazy buzz of the boom market or the doom and gloom of the bust.  It will be interesting to see what the summer brings. The tax credit ended on April 30, so there are fears that the market will slow down dramatically for the summer. So far, I haven’t seen that, but we’ll have a better idea of what’s in store when we see the May statistics.

“If You Don’t Buy a House Now,

You’re Stupid or Broke“

It’s all about interest rates. If you do the math, you’ll see that Marc Roth makes a strong argument.

Please note, Inverness is made up of the 60067 and 60010 zip codes, and is not separated out.

See first and second quarter price trends.

*All data is from Midwest Real Estate Data LLC, November 2009.

Average Percentage of Sale to List Prices

To illustrate, buyers who purchased a home in Palatine in the first quarter were on average getting about 9.4% off of the list price. In Barrington, in the first quarter, buyers were averaging about 10% off of the list price.

Take, for example, the decrease in values we’ve seen this year. If you look at Palatine, year-to-date, the average sale price came down about 16% from 2008. The average sale price in Reseda, however, dropped just 6%.

That is a 10% difference, which could mean tens of thousands of dollars to a seller. Well-constructed neighborhoods with lush landscaping, close proximity to jobs and transportation, and low turn-over tend to fare better during boom and bust cycles.

Would you like to know how you’re subdivision is doing?  Email me, and I’ll send you the data. 

*data from Midwest Real Estate Data, LLC, 10/22/09

Quarter One 2009,  Average Price Change

60067                                  -23%

60010                                  -13%

Quarter Two 2009,  Average Price Change

60067                                  -16%

60010                                  -22%

This data compares the average home price for 2009 to the average home price of 2008 in the respective zip codes.  Now that we have two quarters of data, we can see that 2009 is shaping up to be a year of price depreciation in Barrington and Palatine.  Keep in mind that some neighborhoods are faring better than others.  The third quarter data should be out soon.

*2009 Midwest Real Estate Data, LLC and National Association of Realtors

The Chicagoland Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area (which consists of Chicago and surrounding suburban areas) reported an increase of 68%  in the number of sales for the second quarter of 2009 compared to the first quarter of 2009.

The IAR also reported a seven percent increase in the median price for the Chicago metro area from the first quarter to the second.

Total sales and prices were down from 2008 numbers, but the dramatic quarter over quarter increases for 2009 sales and pricing may be a sign of a recovery.

Given the increase of energy and hustle I’ve seen in my office, I expect the second quarter numbers to be much stronger than the first quarter. First quarter numbers largely reflect winter months; whereas, the second quarter covers April, May and June, the peak of the spring market.  This year I’ve seen a radical difference in these two quarters with regard to open house attendance, home showings, and most importantly contracts.

As I’ve said in previous articles, I don’t think this is a sign of a complete recovery. In fact, I would expect summer sales to be slower than the spring, as they are every year. But, I’ll take whatever good news I can get and the second quarter numbers promise to bring some very good news, indeed.

The best reports tend to be quarterly because those reports show trends more than the monthly reports, which can over-emphasize blips or anomalies in the market. But, again, the problem with quarter reports is that by the time you get them, the market may have shifted significantly.

The shift from a winter market to a spring one tends to be the most dramatic of them all.

Take, for example, the quarter one reports for 2009, which I dutifully posted on my blog a couple weeks ago (see post below).  They paint the picture of an extraordinarily slow market with desperate sellers.  And, that is how the market was in January, February and March.  But, in April, as sellers dramatically cut their prices and interest rates hit record lows, buyers were out in droves.

My colleagues and I were finding ourselves in dual offers, quickly selling homes, a fast-paced market, and high sale-to-list ratios.  This was not a complete turn-around or complete recovery, but it was radically different from the snail’s pace of a market we had in February.

Now, watch, just as the market slows down a little for the summer, the quarter two reports will come out and confuse everyone all over again.  See the article on the dramatic rise in home sales in April just posted by yahoo this morning.

Does this mean real estate statistics are useless?  I don’t think so; they provide an excellent sense of context and give you a larger sense of what is going on in your local market.  For example, current stats show that prices are significantly lower than they have been over the last few years, and that is important information that tends to shift more slowly.

I will continue to post our local stats and keep our “Local Stats” category (in the right margin) updated.  But, keep in mind that the current word on the street is often just as important and sometimes more important than the old news in the media.